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AI traders are already testing prediction markets—and losing money

Fast Company Tech Chris Stokel-Walker April 24, 2026
AI traders are already testing prediction markets—and losing money
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# AI Models Lost Money When Trading on Prediction Markets Recent research put six leading AI models to the test by giving each $10,000 to trade on real prediction markets, and they all lost money—between 16% and 31%—over the course of two months. This finding directly contradicts hype on social media claiming that AI can easily beat prediction markets and make quick profits. The study suggests that while AI excels at processing information, it struggles with the unpredictable, real-time decision-making required in actual trading.

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have roared into the public consciousness, drawing scrutiny from regulators and politicians. They’ve also captured the imagination of social media users, some of whom post outlandish claims of striking it rich by pointing AI models at prediction markets and m

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